Ovechkin's Contract Bad for NHL, But Not the Way You May Think It Is

The recent signing of Washington Capitals’ mega-star Alexander Ovechkin to a 13-year, $124 million contract extension last week has been a hot topic among hockey analysts, both on television and around the water cooler. The first issue that seems to be raised when discussing Ovechkin’s new contract has been that the NHL is hopping in the DeLorean with Doc Emmett and returning to the financial mess created by the pre-lockout NHL economics.

Though it’s not surprising many fans and analysts would jump to such a conclusion (the entrance of multi-million dollar per year contracts between 1995 and 2004 was one of the many direct causes of the loss of the 2004-05 season) the dollar amount of Ovechkin’s contract is not what should be the most concerning: rather, where Ovechkin will be playing out his thirteen years of the contract is of a much greater concern. With the NHL attempting to grow its popularity, one would have to wonder if having the NHL’s second largest star playing in the U.S. capital well throughout his prime serves such a purpose.

Consider the NHL of fifteen years ago when hockey reached what many believe to be the height of the sport’s popularity. In June of 1994:

• The New York Rangers were fresh off a Game 7 victory, captained by Mark Messier, to win the Stanley Cup for the first time in 42 years.
  
• The Los Angeles Kings, led by Wayne Gretzky, were a year removed from reaching the Stanley Cup Finals and filled much of the Great Western Forum with well known celebs.
• The Chicago Blackhawks and a charismatic Jeremy Roenick were considered to be most analysts pre-season pick for Stanley Cup finalists, having been only two years removed from their last trip to the finals.
• The Toronto Maple Leafs experienced a resurgence as Canada’s gem after two straight Conference Finals appearances in ’93 and ’94 due to the unrelenting play of Doug Gilmour, among many others.
• And last, but certainly not least of all, Sports Illustrated ran the headline “Why the NHL’s Hot and the NBA’s Not”. At this same time, ice and roller hockey rinks began popping up in areas that have and will never be known for their cool climate, and Fox had recently signed a national television deal to capitalize on the booming growth of the sport.

And then the phrase all die-hard hockey fans have come to know and dread more than “neutral zone trap” popped into our lives: “lockout”. With the lockout came an immediate fall in hockey’s popularity, one which the sport has yet to recover from. Though many NHL officials are paid handsomely to convince the world otherwise, the NHL and hockey are nowhere close to the boom that occurred in the early ’90s and, some would argue, never will be.

The status of the sport’s popularity is likely to continue until the NHL of today mimics the NHL of yester-decade, with strong teams and popular stars inhabiting the NHL’s highest profile cities namely New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, and Toronto. With Ovechkin’s entry level deal set to expire at the end of the 2007-08 season, there is no doubt that had Washington been unsuccessful at re-signing him there would have been thirty NHL general managers waiting on Ovechkin’s doorstep come July 1^st. Huddled in this group of what would appear to be very aggressive Jehovah’s witnesses would be Glen Sather, Dale Tallon, Dean Lombardi, and whoever will be manning GM duties in Toronto this summer; with every one of those GM’s offering the single player cap maximum to Ovechkin.

The combination of Ovechkin with any of the top stars in New York, Chicago, L.A. or Toronto would be the thing of legend. As ESPN.com columnist John Buccigross suggested, “Put Anze Kopitar with Ovechkin and any upright mammal” and you have an all new first line for the L.A. Kings. Perhaps Ovechkin could play wing opposite Patrick Kane while Jonathan Toews centers the line for the next fifteen years in Chicago. In another hypothetical scenario, Jaromir Jagr lives up to his offhand comment to the media two years ago, deciding to retire after this season only to be replaced by Ovechkin on the top line in New York. Any hypothetical discussion of Toronto would be pointless, considering the team in Toronto today will be very different from the team in Toronto this summer.

Granted, none of the scenarios listed above guarantee any of the Rangers, Blackhawks, Kings, or Maple Leafs a trip to the Stanley Cup Finals let alone a playoff birth. However, Ovechkin’s presence in any city does guarantee one element: star power. Gretzky had it. Messier had it. And today, Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby have it. Combine that sort of star power with a team that gains success in a major city and there is no chance that the NHL won’t thrive in that town.

Unfortunately, the only GM appearing on Alexander Ovechkin’s doorstep this summer will be George McPhee, likely to pick him up to meet with Mike Comrie, Marian Hossa, or some other unrestricted free agent in the hopes of drawing him to Washington. And thus, one of the NHL’s biggest stars will have great success, probably a Cup championship or two, while playing in Washington, D.C. Unless John Buccigross or Darren Pang find themselves playing U.S. President sometime in the next decade, and we waive the “no foreigners” clause in the Oval Office for Panger, the NHL will continue to find itself treading water in its attempt to grow hockey.

Stay tuned for my Eastern Conference playoff and non-playoff team predictions later this week.