I'm Baaack!

After a one year unintentional hiatus, it’s time to give the blog another go.

Thus far, this NHL season has provided a mixed bag of surprises; from the possible and still unconfirmed emergence of the Leafs’ Nik Antropov to the looming decision on the horizon for Teemu Selanne about whether to bag skate or bag his own kid’s school lunch. Alas, these are the signs that we are at the half way marker of the 2007-08 hockey season.

Everyone knows what that means: it’s time for us all to complain about the All-Star Game and to attempt to predict how the playoffs will look in mid-April. I’ll save the former for the All-Star break, and tonight begin the arduous task of determining who will and who won’t be playing past April 6th, starting with the Western Conference.

Now just to clear the air, I personally hate predictions regarding hockey. Most often, anytime a hockey analyst or hockey fan Joe Schmoe makes a successful prediction that is based on the long term rather than a game-by-game basis, there’s about as much luck thrown into the equation as weekend stay at the Venetian. So don’t be surprised if a trip to Vegas is in my future when these predictions are successfully reviewed (wishful thinking) just before the playoffs.

The No Brainers:

Detroit Red Wings, 33-9-4, 70 pts

An explanation isn’t anywhere in the ballpark of necessary. It’s very likely that if Wings GM Ken Holland begged Steve Yzerman to return from retirement only to take over between the pipes for Dominik Hasek and Chris Osgood, this team would still make the playoffs. Not only have Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg emerged as the most talented duo this side of Crosby and Malkin, but the Wings seem to found a way to replace the grit and blue collar workmanship that has been lacking from this team since the departure of Darren McCarty; namely, scoring the other team into submission. There is still one strategy teams have yet to try to stop the Wings though: plug those holes in Pavel Datsyuk stick shaft with pieces leaded cork (yes, I know that hasn’t been invented…YET!)

San Jose Shark, 25-12-7, 57 pts

Sometimes I wonder if I am the only breathing individual on Earth that did not believe the Sharks would be where they currently are in the standings. Granted, they likely have the best passer/center/large forward in the NHL and a goaltender that can steal one game after another without showing much worse for wear; but has anyone else noticed that this team appears to be a ticking time bomb? For the past half decade, the hockey world has waited for the Sharks to reach the Stanley Cup Finals, only to be shown a complete lack of the heart and determination that is necessary to do so. Throughout the entire season, every columnist, analyst, and hockey fan has pointed out that the Sharks have been pulled through wins by Nabakov and Thornton, and though the team will have no problems making the playoffs at this point, I wish them luck beating a talent laden team such as Detroit or Anaheim in a seven game series.

Anaheim Ducks, 24-17-6, 54 pts

Doesn’t it seem as though anyone paying attention to the Ducks is still waiting for the season to “really begin”. The rough start that introduced the defending Cup champs to the 2007-08 season still seems to be lingering despite the return of former captain and Conn Smythe winner Scott Niedermayer and the addition of Doug “I don’t care if I only have one good shoulder, I’m lifting this damn Cup” Weight. The team has definitely improved since the simultaneous addition of the two veterans, but just as Niedermayer is attempting to regain his Norris Trophy form in a mid-season return, so too are the Ducks attempting to regain the dominance which they became accustomed to much of last season. Barring the “big one” hitting the West Coast, the Ducks will be attempting to defend their title in the spring.

The Very Likely

Calgary Flames, 22-16-8, 52 pts

If memory serves, I do believe this is the first Mike Keenan coached team that has focused more on the play of the players than on the tirades of the coach. Despite Keenan’s new found Zen-like nature (can anyone say oxymoron), the Flames have continued where they left off last season, displaying moments of brilliance, heart, and soul as well as an equal number of moments of disarray and sloppy play. If ever the Flames permanently take on the character of their captain, Jarome Iginla, much in the way they did during their trip to the Finals in 2004, they will be a team to reckon with. Until then, the Flames will have to settle with a guaranteed playoff spot due to the return to form of Mikka Kiprusoff. As long as Kiprusoff plays to his ability, the Flames will contend in the playoffs; it’s what they do once the regular season is over that is the issue.

Vancouver Canucks, 25-16-4, 54 pts

There is one reason and one reason only that the Vancouver Canucks are a near lock for the playoffs, and you’ll only need one guess to figure out what that reason is: Roberto Luongo. With the exception of the Sedin twins and the very quiet resurgence of Markus Naslund, there has not been much to the Canucks beyond Roberto Luongo this season. On paper this team has one of the top defensive corps in the NHL, but in reality the Canucks have been without one or more of their top three defenseman every game this season. As long as Luongo does not share the fate of the team’s top defensemen, the Canucks should increase Canada’s chances of seeing a Canadian team in the Finals for a fourth straight season.

Minnesota Wild, 26-17-2, 54 pts

Though Marian Gaborik was the first player in twelve years to score five goals in one game in the NHL, the Wild are still one of the most boring teams to watch in the NHL for goal enthusiasts. Unless you are in the minority of freaks that enjoy dissecting defense systems in hockey (I believe I’m the VP of this select club; I lost the majority vote to Jacques Lemaire for president), the Wild are not a team that will come to town and inspire many fans to run to the box office for tickets. That same style of play that turns fans away is also the same style of play that will keep the Wild in the hunt for a playoff spot. Every year since Minnesota’s inaugural season, the Wild have continued to play the same style of defensive hockey with one exception: each year the team has become more dangerous offensively. First was the addition of Brian Rolston, then the maturity of forwards such as Pierre-Marc Bouchard and, later, Mikko Koivu, followed by the addition of Pavol Demitra, and finally a consistent, healthy season from Marian Gaborik (knock on wood). With all of these pieces coming together, the Minnesota Wild could quietly sneak their way into the playoffs as a quiet contender.

The Teams I May Regret Taking a Chance On

Colorado Avalanche, 24-18-3, 51 pts

Due to the injuries to both Ryan Smyth and Joe Sakic, the Avalanche are going to have to fight for every inch if they hope to sneak into the playoffs. The fact that no one knows which Jose Theodore will appear at crunch time and that there will be five or six teams breathing down the backs of the Avs for one of the final two playoff spots in the coming weeks, and you have a recipe for a seriously botched prediction.

St. Louis Blues, 22-15-6, 50 pts

As long as Manny Legace can keep his legs healthy and Andy Murray doesn't enter a coma, the Blues will claw their way into the playoffs by way of one of the seventh or eighth seed. Talk to any team that has had to face the Blues this season, and I guarantee that a form of this phrase will come up in the conversation: "The Blues are a hard team to beat." The difficulty in playing the Blues does not come from an over abundance of talent (despite having players on the roster by the name of Tkachuk, Kariya, and McDonald), but from their knowledge of their opponents and their never quit style of play. Much of this should be credited to coach Murray, whose nightly prep sheets provided to the door steps of players' hotel rooms and constant one on one player-coach meetings have crossed over from neurotic to brilliant. At least, that's what will be said so long as the Blues continue to make games difficult for every last opponent.

The Omissions I Could Live to Regret

Dallas Stars, 25-17-5, 55 pts

If it weren't for the Dallas Stars, I would felly wholly comfortable choosing the Avs and Blues to make the playoffs. The Stars are a team that seems to be clutching for their former days of glory, attempting to keep from falling into the depths of building through the draft with high draft picks resulting from consecutive terrible regular seasons. The firing of GM Doug Armstrong earlier this season seemed to be a desperate move to keep the Stars from falling from grace much the way of the Nashville Predators (minus an ownership change, plus one Stanley Cup championship). The Stars have every bit within themselves that it will take to make the playoffs, their only problem is finding where that bit lies within them and actually using it. Various times this season the Stars have blown solid leads and failed to establish their presence during games, two characteristics that will assure a team a vacation come April 7th.

Columbus Blue Jackets, 21-18-6, 48 pts

The Blue Jackets have made great strides toward becoming a playoff team, with the impressive all-around play and maturity of Rick Nash, Nikolai Zherdev finally finding his game, and the Jackets finding a way to finally play as a team. Combine these three factors with a nasty defense corps that is living up to its potential, and you have a team that is going to fight tooth and nail up to the 82nd game of the regular season. Columbus fans have Ken Hitchcock to thank for the style of play they have been waiting nearly a decade for, however, this team still seems to have another season to go before reaching the playoffs for the first time in its history. Though they will fight to the bitter end of the regular season, there are just too many other teams that have a better chance of grabbing the seventh and eight playoff seeds.

The Close, But No Cigar Finishers

Phoenix Coyotes, 23-20-1, 47 pts

At this point in the season, it's impressive that the Coyotes are not only above .500, but are pushing for a playoff spot. The team has made vast improvements in areas that were lacking from last year's team, most particularly in goal. The pick up off waivers of goaltender Ilya Bryzgalov from the Anaheim Ducks over a month ago has brought legitimacy to the Coyotes on a game-by-game basis, a quality that has been lacking in Phoenix since the departure of Sean Burke years ago. Despite their newfound commanded respect, the Coyotes still have a great deal of growth to experience from just above the goal line and out. The Coyotes are a very young and inexperienced team, and though they will continue to impress the league for the rest of this season the playoffs will seem to be a distant dream just after the trade deadline on February 26th.

Nashville Predators, 21-19-4, 46 pts

I can't begin to imagine how frustrating it has to be for coach Barry Trotz to go from the roster the Predators had last season to their current roster. Several of the core players from last season's roster are now playing pivotal roles on other teams, most importantly goaltender Tomas Vokoun, now with the Florida Panthers. Though several pre-season predictions had the Predators contending for one of the top playoff spots, this team has failed to meet expectations. An early season lapse in play by newly anointed #1 goaltender Chris Mason hindered the Preds from gaining the same early jump start the team enjoyed last season. Mason has turned his season around for the most part, but the losses of experienced veterans such as Paul Kariya, Kimmo Timonen, and Scott Hartnell to off-season trades and free agency, as well as Steve Sullivan to season-ending injury, will prove to be the difference when the Preds are pushing for the final playoff spot in the final fifteen games of the season.

The Snowball's Chance in...

Chicago Blackhawks, 20-21-4, 44 pts

At this point in the season, the playoffs are looking bleak for the Blackhawks, but not impossible. Give them a month. By the trade deadline it is very likely that the Blackhawks will be sellers, not buyers. This team has an immeasurable amount of talent, and once coach Denis Savard can harness that talent and get this team to compete on a consistent basis, the Blackhawks will be one of the league's most feared teams.

Edmonton Oilers, 21-21-4, 46 pts

The Oilers are a perfect example of how quickly a team can fall apart as the result of one very bad trade. The sting of losing Chris Pronger will not wear off for years to come, and Oilers fans will be reminded of this when April comes and goes without the Oilers anywhere near the playoffs. After a season many Oiler faithful will pray to forget, the question will become who will GM Kevin Lowe attempt to obtain via free agency this off-season and how much money will he be allowed to use to improve this team quickly.

Los Angeles Kings, 17-27-2, 36 pts

Likely to be the most disappointing team this season, the Kings are the only team that is as close to being eliminated from playoff contention without actually being mathematically eliminated. Many hockey analysts have attributed inconsistent goaltending to the Kings woes, but with the exception of a fourteen game stint that involved a rib injury to #1 goaltender Jason Labarbera and his subsequent in-game rehab time, the only reason the Kings have been able to compete in most of their games has been due to the play of Labarbera. With the return to form of captain Rob Blake following off-season hip surgery and the emergence of such young players as Dustin Brown and Patrick O'Sullivan, the Kings could realistically make a final, half-season long push for the playoffs. Unfortunately for the Kings, a series of ten game winning streaks are only likely if Red Wings GM Ken Holland is willing to make an even swap, his 20 man roster for the Kings 20 man roster.