My hope is that this will be a place for insightful and intelligent hockey discussion...I may be asking too much of myself...
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Eastern Conference Mid-Season Playoff Predictions
The "We Barely Qualify As Predictions" Predictions
Ottawa Senators, 30-15-4, 64 pts
Despite losing each member of the league's best line at various times throughout the past month, the Ottawa Senators will have no trouble locking up a playoff birth. In fact, the Senators seem to be the unanimous choice to repeat as Eastern Conference Champs. The much more difficult prediction is who will be backstopping the Sens to the post-season.
New Jersey Devils, 28-18-3, 59 pts
Come on, it's Jersey. No matter who the Devils have in their lineup they still seem to get the job done. Combatting slow starts and the loss of star players with a solid system and adept coaching, the Devils will yet again look to spoil some aspiring teams playoff hopes.
Pittsburgh Penguins, 27-18-4, 58 pts
Unlike the past three Penguins teams, the Pens will actually have no problem making the playoffs, even without Sidney Crosby for an extended period of time. Immediately after it was reported that Crosby would miss up to two months with a high ankle sprain, polls hit the internet asking whether or not the Pens would be in the playoffs; enter Evgeni Malkin. No more than two games after the loss of Crosby, Evgeni Malkin tightened the straps on his day pack and began carrying the Penguins uphill; a fact which the entire league has taken notice to. Considering Crosby should be back well before the end of the regular season, the Pens will not be so concerned with if they'll be playing in late April, but who.
The "I Didn't Need to Call Miss Cleo to Get These Picks" Picks
Carolina Hurricanes, 24-24-4, 52 pts
Despite their recent losing slide over the past ten games and injuries to several key players, the Hurricanes are a team that could do some serious damage in the playoffs. Only a year removed from their first Stanley Cup, the Hurricanes have all the right ingredients for another Cup run, if only they could maintain the same focus that helped them reach their place of prominence almost two years ago.
Philadelphia Flyers, 27-16-5, 59 pts
Speaking of the '06 Hurricanes, this year's Flyers have a vague resemblance of the team that won the Cup two years ago. Mike Richards has played very similar to a less in-shape Rod Brind'Amour, Derian Hatcher comes across as a less likable and slightly crazier version of Mike Commodore, and Antero Niiittymaki could very well take over the number one goaltending reins from Martin Biron should he falter in the first round of the playoffs. If there were an award for most improved team in the NHL, the Broad Street Bullies would win it hands down. In just one year the Flyers have gone from the laughing stock of the league to a serious contender. In fact, the only thing keeping this team out of the top three in these predictions is that Sens, Devils, and Pens were all in the playoffs last year while the Flyers were not.
Boston Bruins, 26-19-5, 57 pts
The Bruins have been one of the bigger surprises in the league this season, all while missing one of their top three players, Patrice Bergeron, for a majority of the season. A great deal of credit should be given to general manager Peter Chiarelli for being patient over the past year with free agent acquisitions Zdeno Chara and Marc Savard as well as goaltender Tim Thomas. Though the same patience was not extended to his coaching staff last year, the sophomore GM did not panic when Savard and Chara had slow starts as Bruins, nor did he pull the trigger on a deal to get Thomas out of town. Granted, Chiarelli did deal for Manny Fernandez over the summer as an insurance policy, but said deal only seemed to fuel Thomas' determination to prove he is a worthy number one goaltender. Credit should also be given to coach Claude Julien for successfully picking up the pieces of a team that seemed to be last for much of last season.
The "Sneaking in by the Skin of Our Teeth" Picks
New York Rangers, 24-22-6, 54 pts
A month ago this pick would not have been a stretch, but over the past month the Rangers have not done many favors for themselves. Henrik Lundqvist's ability to win a stretch of games all on his own is likely what will save the Rangers season, but the Rangers will need to obtain either an offensive minded defenseman or an experienced veteran defensive defenseman. Rumors out of New York have Marek Malik with his bags packed and a plane ticket waiting for a destination, and a package deal that includes goaltending prospect Al Montoya could fetch the Rangers a high profile defenseman, pending any cap issues.
Washington Capitals, 23-22-5, 51 pts
The Capitals story is much the reverse to that of the Rangers. A little over one month ago, the Capitals were changing coaches and sitting in the depths of the NHL cellar. One month later, the Capitals are tearing through the Eastern Conference and leap frogging teams in the Southeast Division standings. Much of the recent success in Washington has been attributed to the team's inspired play under the tutelage of veteran minor league coach Bruce Boudreau. If the Caps coast into the playoffs, should Boudreau be considered for the Jack Adams Trophy for coach of the year?
The "Exclusions That Could Very Well Make Me Look Foolish" Picks
Montreal Canadiens, 26-15-8, 60 pts
Had it not been for the hot start to the Ottawa Senators' season, the Habs would be currently leading the Northeast Division. Yet somehow, they will find a way to severely drop in the standings over the next three months. This may be the year we finally see Alexei Kovalev have a complete meltdown (in Montreal, you just get this feeling that he's a ticking time bomb) or that we find out that Cristobal Huet is not the goaltender he has pretended to be over the past two season. In all likelihood, neither of these situations will become reality, with Kovalev having the best finish to a season in his career and Huet showing he's worth every penny of his $2.75 million per year contract, but such situations would only cause this prediction to be false. Therefore, in the words of Mythbuster Adam Savage, "I reject your reality and substitute my own!"
Atlanta Thrashers, 23-25-4, 50 pts
The Thrashers are the NHL's least talked about most dysfunctional club. Consider the facts: Atlanta has lacked a true head coach for most of the season; Kari Lehtonen, the franchise goaltender all Thrasher fans have been waiting on for three years, has spent nearly as much time in the press box healing from injury as he has playing between the pipes; the team's second star player, Marian Hossa, will likely be the best trade deadline rental player the league has ever seen, all for another team; and the Thrashers blueline is the worst in the entire NHL, with a league worst 175 goals against. Though this team will continue to have a promising future, GM Don Waddell has a busy summer ahead of him.
New York Islanders, 24-21-6, 54 pts
As long as Ted Nolan doesn't read this, it's safe to say the Islanders will be dead in the water come April. Thus far, the loss of several players to free agency hasn't seemed to affect the Isles much, but this is about the time of year that the changes to their roster will begin to show. Though Rick DiPietro has really begun to come into his own this season, the Islanders just do not have enough depth in their roster to get into the top eight in the Eastern Conference.
Florida Panthers, 22-24-5, 49 pts
The Panthers are ripe for a good playoff series, having seen the quiet development of Olli Jokinen and Jay Bouwmeester as quality leaders and hockey players. However, the Panthers continue to suffer from slow starts and will likely come close to a playoff berth, only to be eliminated from contention with less than five games left to go in the season. This will be truly unfortunate, mostly due to the great play of goaltender Tomas Vokoun during his first year in Florida.
The "We'll Get Our High Draft Choices and Be Better Next Year" Picks
Buffalo Sabres, 22-21-6, 50 pts
It always hurts to see a team go from prominence to obscurity. During the off-season everyone in the league seemed to be trying to spare GM Darcy Regier's feelings by not saying what was plain and obvious to the rest of the world. Had the Sabres not lost Chris Drury and/or Daniel Briere to free agency it is highly likely the Sabres would be somewhere in the top eight in the Eastern Conference. Most of all, there is not a chance that the Sabres would have suffered from a ten game losing streak. Though Briere and Drury have never been known as vocal leaders in the locker room, both players showed time again during their time in Buffalo that their pride alone would not allow them to lose ten games in a row. It's not very often a team finds a combination such as the one that Drury and Briere provided for the Sabres, and one can only hope that the team finds a way to rebound in the coming seasons.
Tampa Bay Lightning, 20-26-5, 45 pts
Such a talented team should not be so low in the standings and, unfortunately, two very good hockey men may lose their jobs as a result. The two men I'm referring to are Lightning GM Jay Feaster and coach John Tortorella, and unless this team experiences a miracle they will be the most talented team not in the playoffs. The rumor mill has been speculating on a straight swap with the Dallas Stars, Martin St. Louis for Marty Turco, but Dallas has vehemently denied the gossip. Although the Stars denial does not mean much, the deal doesn't make much sense for Tampa. The team does desperately need a true number one goaltender, but St. Louis would be far to steep a price to pay. It's more likely the Lightning will look to move Brad Richards and his huge contract to a playoff contender (can we say three team trade involving Richards, Mats Sundin and Andrew Raycroft of Toronto, and insert name here of insert playoff contending team here?).
Toronto Maple Leafs, 20-24-8, 48 pts
A week ago, it was stated in this blog that the Toronto Maple Leafs would be experiencing a great deal of change very soon. To no one's surprise, the Leafs fired their general manager and hired their old GM to handle those duties and tidy up the mess for someone else until this summer. That being said, the Leafs will be the team to watch during the month of February. Not due to any miracles they may pull out from the depths of their players' character, but to see how many different players will be in their lineup throughout the month. As we get closer to the trade deadline, the Leafs will be huge sellers with very few players being unavailable to other teams. In other words, the Leafs will be last season's Philadelphia Flyers, only the Leafs will likely fetch several draft picks rather than prospects that are ready to contribute to their lineup immediately.
Friday, January 25, 2008
All-Star Overhaul
Yes, it's that time of year again when the hockey world comes together to gripe and complain about the boredom that is induced by the NHL All-Star Game. The NHL finally seems to be listening, as the Skills Competition has been changed to a format that may finally satisfy most fans. However, the All-Star Game will likely be yet another over-hyped pickup game.
It seems that every year more suggestions to make the All-Star Game better are popping up, some more extreme than others. One such gimmick would be to take the approach of Major League Baseball and allow the conference that wins the All-Star Game to host the Stanley Cup Finals. The winner hosts the finals approach was adopted by MLB officials in order to force the players into making the All-Star Game an enjoyable, watchable event. Many, including Western Conference All-Star head coach Mike Babcock, believe this approach is a bad idea for the NHL. "I wouldn't want to see that," Babcock said to NHL.com, "It isn't fair to the team that worked all season to have the best record."
Other approaches incorporate the NHL's past. For example, instead of an All-Star Game featuring the best players from each conference playing against one another, why not have the top twenty All-Stars in the league play the Stanley Cup Champions? Similar to the approach used during part of the 1960's, this approach would allow players that are known for their competitiveness and never-quit play to participate in the All-Star Game. Imagine this year's All-Star Game with George Parros, Brad May, and Todd Marchant lining up against Martin St. Louis, Vinny Lecavalier, and Pavel Datsyuk. The Stanley Cup Champs could be given the privilege of hosting the game as well as the extra revenue that would be generated. The league itself would likely shoot down such a scenario due to the fact that each team would not be guaranteed representation nor a chance to petition hosting the game.
Another scenario that has been suggested is to combine the All-Star Game and the Winter Classic, making an outdoor game an annual event for the NHL. After the success of this year's game between Buffalo and Pittsburgh despite the moments during the game that felt much more like an early Saturday morning pickup game. The feelings of nostalgia brought upon by the similarities between shinny on a pond and the Winter Classic could be exactly what the All-Star Game is yearning for.
For the hockey historians, why not have the All-Star teams chosen by the game's two greatest living coaches, Scotty Bowman and Al Arbour.
Instead of changing the way in which the All-Star Game is played, he NHL could go to the extreme and award an extra point in the standings for every player represented on the winning team.
Any way it goes, it's likely that every attempt to make the NHL All-Star Game more enjoyable will only cause more uproar. Whichever way the league chooses to go, it's obvious that a change is needed.
Friday, January 18, 2008
Ovechkin's Contract Bad for NHL, But Not the Way You May Think It Is
The recent signing of Washington Capitals’ mega-star Alexander Ovechkin to a 13-year, $124 million contract extension last week has been a hot topic among hockey analysts, both on television and around the water cooler. The first issue that seems to be raised when discussing Ovechkin’s new contract has been that the NHL is hopping in the DeLorean with Doc Emmett and returning to the financial mess created by the pre-lockout NHL economics.
Though it’s not surprising many fans and analysts would jump to such a conclusion (the entrance of multi-million dollar per year contracts between 1995 and 2004 was one of the many direct causes of the loss of the 2004-05 season) the dollar amount of Ovechkin’s contract is not what should be the most concerning: rather, where Ovechkin will be playing out his thirteen years of the contract is of a much greater concern. With the NHL attempting to grow its popularity, one would have to wonder if having the NHL’s second largest star playing in the
Consider the NHL of fifteen years ago when hockey reached what many believe to be the height of the sport’s popularity. In June of 1994:
- The New York Rangers were fresh off a Game 7 victory, captained by Mark Messier, to win the Stanley Cup for the first time in 42 years.
- The Los Angeles Kings, led by Wayne Gretzky, were a year removed from reaching the Stanley Cup Finals and filled much of the Great Western Forum with well known celebs.
- The Chicago Blackhawks and a charismatic Jeremy Roenick were considered to be most analysts pre-season pick for Stanley Cup finalists, having been only two years removed from their last trip to the finals.
- The Toronto Maple Leafs experienced a resurgence as Canada’s gem after two straight Conference Finals appearances in ’93 and ’94 due to the unrelenting play of Doug Gilmour, among many others.
- And last, but certainly not least of all, Sports Illustrated ran the headline “Why the NHL’s Hot and the NBA’s Not”. At this same time, ice and roller hockey rinks began popping up in areas that have and will never be known for their cool climate, and Fox had recently signed a national television deal to capitalize on the booming growth of the sport.
And then the phrase all die-hard hockey fans have come to know and dread more than “neutral zone trap” popped into our lives: “lockout”. With the lockout came an immediate fall in hockey’s popularity, one which the sport has yet to recover from. Though many NHL officials are paid handsomely to convince the world otherwise, the NHL and hockey are nowhere close to the boom that occurred in the early ’90s and, some would argue, never will be.
The status of the sport’s popularity is likely to continue until the NHL of today mimics the NHL of yester-decade, with strong teams and popular stars inhabiting the NHL’s highest profile cities namely
The combination of Ovechkin with any of the top stars in
Granted, none of the scenarios listed above guarantee any of the Rangers, Blackhawks, Kings, or Maple Leafs a trip to the Stanley Cup Finals let alone a playoff birth. However, Ovechkin’s presence in any city does guarantee one element: star power. Gretzky had it. Messier had it. And today, Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby have it. Combine that sort of star power with a team that gains success in a major city and there is no chance that the NHL won’t thrive in that town.
Unfortunately, the only GM appearing on Alexander Ovechkin’s doorstep this summer will be George McPhee, likely to pick him up to meet with Mike Comrie, Marian Hossa, or some other unrestricted free agent in the hopes of drawing him to Washington. And thus, one of the NHL’s biggest stars will have great success, probably a Cup championship or two, while playing in Washington, D.C. Unless John Buccigross or Darren Pang find themselves playing U.S. President sometime in the next decade, and we waive the “no foreigners” clause in the Oval Office for Panger, the NHL will continue to find itself treading water in its attempt to grow hockey.
Stay tuned for my Eastern Conference playoff and non-playoff team predictions later this week.
Monday, January 14, 2008
I'm Baaack!
After a one year unintentional hiatus, it’s time to give the blog another go.
If memory serves, I do believe this is the first Mike Keenan coached team that has focused more on the play of the players than on the tirades of the coach. Despite Keenan’s new found Zen-like nature (can anyone say oxymoron), the Flames have continued where they left off last season, displaying moments of brilliance, heart, and soul as well as an equal number of moments of disarray and sloppy play. If ever the Flames permanently take on the character of their captain, Jarome Iginla, much in the way they did during their trip to the Finals in 2004, they will be a team to reckon with. Until then, the Flames will have to settle with a guaranteed playoff spot due to the return to form of Mikka Kiprusoff. As long as Kiprusoff plays to his ability, the Flames will contend in the playoffs; it’s what they do once the regular season is over that is the issue.
Vancouver Canucks, 25-16-4, 54 pts
There is one reason and one reason only that the Vancouver Canucks are a near lock for the playoffs, and you’ll only need one guess to figure out what that reason is: Roberto Luongo. With the exception of the Sedin twins and the very quiet resurgence of Markus Naslund, there has not been much to the Canucks beyond Roberto Luongo this season. On paper this team has one of the top defensive corps in the NHL, but in reality the Canucks have been without one or more of their top three defenseman every game this season. As long as Luongo does not share the fate of the team’s top defensemen, the Canucks should increase
Minnesota Wild, 26-17-2, 54 pts
Though Marian Gaborik was the first player in twelve years to score five goals in one game in the NHL, the Wild are still one of the most boring teams to watch in the NHL for goal enthusiasts. Unless you are in the minority of freaks that enjoy dissecting defense systems in hockey (I believe I’m the VP of this select club; I lost the majority vote to Jacques Lemaire for president), the Wild are not a team that will come to town and inspire many fans to run to the box office for tickets. That same style of play that turns fans away is also the same style of play that will keep the Wild in the hunt for a playoff spot. Every year since
The Teams I May Regret Taking a Chance On
Colorado Avalanche, 24-18-3, 51 pts
Due to the injuries to both Ryan Smyth and Joe Sakic, the Avalanche are going to have to fight for every inch if they hope to sneak into the playoffs. The fact that no one knows which Jose Theodore will appear at crunch time and that there will be five or six teams breathing down the backs of the Avs for one of the final two playoff spots in the coming weeks, and you have a recipe for a seriously botched prediction.St. Louis Blues, 22-15-6, 50 pts
As long as Manny Legace can keep his legs healthy and Andy Murray doesn't enter a coma, the Blues will claw their way into the playoffs by way of one of the seventh or eighth seed. Talk to any team that has had to face the Blues this season, and I guarantee that a form of this phrase will come up in the conversation: "The Blues are a hard team to beat." The difficulty in playing the Blues does not come from an over abundance of talent (despite having players on the roster by the name of Tkachuk, Kariya, and McDonald), but from their knowledge of their opponents and their never quit style of play. Much of this should be credited to coach Murray, whose nightly prep sheets provided to the door steps of players' hotel rooms and constant one on one player-coach meetings have crossed over from neurotic to brilliant. At least, that's what will be said so long as the Blues continue to make games difficult for every last opponent.
The Omissions I Could Live to Regret
Dallas Stars, 25-17-5, 55 pts
If it weren't for the Dallas Stars, I would felly wholly comfortable choosing the Avs and Blues to make the playoffs. The Stars are a team that seems to be clutching for their former days of glory, attempting to keep from falling into the depths of building through the draft with high draft picks resulting from consecutive terrible regular seasons. The firing of GM Doug Armstrong earlier this season seemed to be a desperate move to keep the Stars from falling from grace much the way of the Nashville Predators (minus an ownership change, plus one Stanley Cup championship). The Stars have every bit within themselves that it will take to make the playoffs, their only problem is finding where that bit lies within them and actually using it. Various times this season the Stars have blown solid leads and failed to establish their presence during games, two characteristics that will assure a team a vacation come April 7th.
Columbus Blue Jackets, 21-18-6, 48 pts
The Blue Jackets have made great strides toward becoming a playoff team, with the impressive all-around play and maturity of Rick Nash, Nikolai Zherdev finally finding his game, and the Jackets finding a way to finally play as a team. Combine these three factors with a nasty defense corps that is living up to its potential, and you have a team that is going to fight tooth and nail up to the 82nd game of the regular season. Columbus fans have Ken Hitchcock to thank for the style of play they have been waiting nearly a decade for, however, this team still seems to have another season to go before reaching the playoffs for the first time in its history. Though they will fight to the bitter end of the regular season, there are just too many other teams that have a better chance of grabbing the seventh and eight playoff seeds.
The Close, But No Cigar Finishers
Phoenix Coyotes, 23-20-1, 47 pts
At this point in the season, it's impressive that the Coyotes are not only above .500, but are pushing for a playoff spot. The team has made vast improvements in areas that were lacking from last year's team, most particularly in goal. The pick up off waivers of goaltender Ilya Bryzgalov from the Anaheim Ducks over a month ago has brought legitimacy to the Coyotes on a game-by-game basis, a quality that has been lacking in Phoenix since the departure of Sean Burke years ago. Despite their newfound commanded respect, the Coyotes still have a great deal of growth to experience from just above the goal line and out. The Coyotes are a very young and inexperienced team, and though they will continue to impress the league for the rest of this season the playoffs will seem to be a distant dream just after the trade deadline on February 26th.
Nashville Predators, 21-19-4, 46 pts
I can't begin to imagine how frustrating it has to be for coach Barry Trotz to go from the roster the Predators had last season to their current roster. Several of the core players from last season's roster are now playing pivotal roles on other teams, most importantly goaltender Tomas Vokoun, now with the Florida Panthers. Though several pre-season predictions had the Predators contending for one of the top playoff spots, this team has failed to meet expectations. An early season lapse in play by newly anointed #1 goaltender Chris Mason hindered the Preds from gaining the same early jump start the team enjoyed last season. Mason has turned his season around for the most part, but the losses of experienced veterans such as Paul Kariya, Kimmo Timonen, and Scott Hartnell to off-season trades and free agency, as well as Steve Sullivan to season-ending injury, will prove to be the difference when the Preds are pushing for the final playoff spot in the final fifteen games of the season.
The Snowball's Chance in...
Chicago Blackhawks, 20-21-4, 44 pts
At this point in the season, the playoffs are looking bleak for the Blackhawks, but not impossible. Give them a month. By the trade deadline it is very likely that the Blackhawks will be sellers, not buyers. This team has an immeasurable amount of talent, and once coach Denis Savard can harness that talent and get this team to compete on a consistent basis, the Blackhawks will be one of the league's most feared teams.
Edmonton Oilers, 21-21-4, 46 pts
The Oilers are a perfect example of how quickly a team can fall apart as the result of one very bad trade. The sting of losing Chris Pronger will not wear off for years to come, and Oilers fans will be reminded of this when April comes and goes without the Oilers anywhere near the playoffs. After a season many Oiler faithful will pray to forget, the question will become who will GM Kevin Lowe attempt to obtain via free agency this off-season and how much money will he be allowed to use to improve this team quickly.
Los Angeles Kings, 17-27-2, 36 pts
Likely to be the most disappointing team this season, the Kings are the only team that is as close to being eliminated from playoff contention without actually being mathematically eliminated. Many hockey analysts have attributed inconsistent goaltending to the Kings woes, but with the exception of a fourteen game stint that involved a rib injury to #1 goaltender Jason Labarbera and his subsequent in-game rehab time, the only reason the Kings have been able to compete in most of their games has been due to the play of Labarbera. With the return to form of captain Rob Blake following off-season hip surgery and the emergence of such young players as Dustin Brown and Patrick O'Sullivan, the Kings could realistically make a final, half-season long push for the playoffs. Unfortunately for the Kings, a series of ten game winning streaks are only likely if Red Wings GM Ken Holland is willing to make an even swap, his 20 man roster for the Kings 20 man roster.